Menzies House

Australia Loses World Cup Bid To Qatar

Menzies House Contributing Editor Terry Barnes writes in today's Age:

When the Australian bid crashed and burned at last week's FIFA vote to select host nations for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, the anguish of bid leader, Westfield billionaire Frank Lowy, was palpable.

Upbeat pre-vote comments of Lowy, Sports Minister Mark Arbib and even Governor-General Quentin Bryce weren't bravado. They appear to have believed genuinely that they had a big chance of securing a holy grail that has consumed $45 million of public money in pursuing support all over the world.

Yet for all the years and huge expense of courting FIFA president Sepp Blatter and the 22 "faceless men" of his executive, for all the knowing winks, handshakes, smiles and assurances of support that the Australian team were given, the payoff was just one vote and first-round elimination.

The bolter won and Lowy's team apparently didn't see it coming. In reality it was base and raw politics that won Qatar 2022 World Cup, even if its bid relied on big money and even bigger promises.

Lowy comes from a business world where a person's word and handshake generally means something. Perhaps his expectations would have been more realistic, and the final outcome better for Australia, if he had examined the experience of those around him such as Arbib and Football Federation Australia board member Ron Walker, who are steeped in the tribal culture of Australian party politics. For the FIFA voting process was uncannily reminiscent of a hotly-contested Labor or Liberal Party safe seat preselection. It featured similar twists in dynamics, loyalties, protestations and promises: it merely was played out on a different stage and a much, much grander scale.

Continue reading the full article at www.theage.com.au

Policy Can Help the Coalition

Menzies House Editor Terry Barnes writes for The Age:

The Coalition's revival under Tony Abbott has been a remarkable political success founded on wily tactics, a better reading of the public mood than his opposite numbers Kevin Rudd and then Julia Gillard, and his disciplined and indefatigable campaigning. Indeed, it's been said that Abbott is campaigning still.

This success masks the voter uncertainty about what policy alternatives the Coalition was advocating. This cost it support, and possibly seats, in the final election washup.  That partly was because in the last term widespread policy renewal was sidelined by circumstances: first by internal upheaval after losing office after 11 years of successful government, by wrestling itself into the dust over Labor's emissions trading scheme, and all this compounded by a sense that defeating a first-term Labor government was highly unlikely.

That's not to say there weren't major policy choices on offer from the Coalition: the Real Action Plan on climate change, debt reduction, turning back the boats, broadband without a nationalised National Broadband Network and Abbott's paid parental leave scheme were conviction-driven counters to highlight and attack major Labor weaknesses.

For many abandoning Gillard's Labor — bringing the Coalition close to victory and the Greens and independents real power — their vote was a protest against the government's performance.  Yet in hindsight it's clear that had more been done to fill out a Coalition policy manifesto beyond the political bullseyes, perhaps Abbott would be majority PM today.

via www.theage.com.au

There can be no complacency in the battle of ideas

The Coalition must remain at the forefront of ideas and debate if it is to have any chance of winning the next election, writes Terry Barnes.

When I studied Australian Politics as a whey-faced undergraduate at ANU in the early 1980s, the sacred text was L.F. Crisp’s Australian Politics and Government.  “Fin” Crisp was a disciple of the Labour movement (no Americanised spellings for him), learning his political creed before the Second World War and was a disciple and biographer of the sainted Ben Chifley.

Crisp’s entry in the Australian Dictionary of Biography notes: “Crisp spoke of how growing up in the Depression years shaped his world view, which included a lifelong membership of the Australian Labor Party.  Generations of students were told that the `anti-Labour’ parties (the `parties of town and country capital’) `lifted’ most of their social policies from the ALP, that the Australian federal system was a `constitutional confection’, and that a `formidable’ case could be mounted for the abolition of the Senate”.

Health can be Baillieu's policy trump card - Terry Barnes

If Baillieu's Coalition cannot break Brumby's grip soon it risks more years in the wilderness. Whatever policies it releases before the election, it needs to have at least one barnstorming idea that Brumby can't match, won't steal, and will cut through to capture voters' imaginations.

There is one such idea ready to adopt and simple to understand. That's to do what Brumby eventually didn't: stand up for Victoria and reject the Rudd health deal.

It's generally thought that the Commonwealth and Labor states have entered into a binding and enforceable contract on the division of responsibilities, governance and funding arrangements for Australia's public hospitals. Not so. What we have is at most a loose and non-binding statement of intent. There is no formal compact, and for the time being there is no federal or complementary state legislation to back the COAG agreement, including promised additional federal recurrent funding beyond 2013. Nor is there as yet any federal legislation to claw back one in three GST dollars to bring the federal share of public hospital capital and recurrent funding to 60 cents in the dollar to which Rudd committed what was then his government. Without these the deal's not worth the paper it's written on.

Baillieu is not bound by Brumby's signature. Nothing prevents him promising that, if elected, his government will reject the inferior COAG outcome so meekly accepted by Brumby. His first move as premier can be to start fresh negotiations with the now prime minister (and fellow Melburnian) Julia Gillard to get a fairer go for Victoria and its public hospital system which, for all its many faults, is envied across Australia. This includes preserving Victoria's activity-based hospital funding and local board governance that's superior to anything proposed by Rudd, Gillard and federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.

via www.theage.com.au

Terry Barnes is a contributing editor of Menzies House. Click the link above to read the full article at The Age.

Welcome to humbug country

Hypocrisy is rife in the debate about parliamentary reforms, writes Terry Barnes.

In the current brouhaha about the content and interpretation of the Oakeshott Settlement, also known as the parliamentary reform agreement that we had to have, the focus has been on the speakership of the House of Representatives, pairs, deliberative votes and what constitutes an independent chair.

But as Federal Parliament is about to gather for its ceremonial opening there is one aspect that escaped notice, or perhaps has been deemed too politically sensitive to criticise or reject.  That aspect is Rob Oakeshott’s insistence that “At the beginning of each sitting day, prior to prayers, the Speaker will make an acknowledgement of country.”

Abbott needs fingers off the Tigger trigger

Terry Barnes writes for The Age today:

Much has been said about how Abbott has grown in stature as an alternative prime minister. Relatively little has been said about how Abbott would actually operate as PM if he gets the nod from the group of crossbenchers who now hold the key.

Abbott himself has given mixed messages. "I can't promise that everyone is going to agree with everything I say and do and I can't promise that I will never make a mistake, but I'll have a cabinet, a staff, a party room, a Parliament, a judiciary and a media to keep me on the straight and narrow. So I'm sure they'll manage one way or another," he told The Age. This is Careful Tony.

But earlier, Abbott had told undecided voters at the Rooty Hill RSL: "If I'm the prime minister, I don't get overridden by my cabinet colleagues." Like the hyperactive tiger in Winnie-the-Pooh, this is Tigger Tony.

Abbott's political life is an unceasing struggle between Careful Tony and Tigger Tony. Generally, Careful Tony wins out and in the campaign he triumphed remarkably, but Tigger is never far away.

via www.theage.com.au

Click through the link above to read the full article. Terry is an editor of Menzies House.

Is Victoria Gillard’s safe haven? Not necessarily…

Terry Barnes gives his election analysis and tips for Victorian seats at the election this weekend.

If on Saturday Labor wins the election, it may well be because they gain one or two seats in Victoria to offset against heavy losses in Queensland and New South Wales, and other losses in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.  Why is this?

Interestingly, Victorians have one thing that they share with their northern neighbours: they too have a Labor government that’s been there too long, lost touch with the community and has presided over fiascos that have ranged from the farcical – the Myki ticketing system that’s still not fully delivered years over time and billions over budget – to the unpreparedness and bungled management that helped make Black Saturday the tragedy it was.  Along the way the public transport system is in chaos, Victorian hospitals are choked and Melbourne’s streets seem to be the preserve of underworld and gang violence and hooligans.  The tide seems to be turning against the Brumby Labor government, but unlike further north it doesn‘t yet seem to have tainted the federal Labor brand. 

Our men and women in uniform aren’t campaign props, Prime Minister

Australia's defence forces should not be used for political purposes, writes Terry Barnes.

As Julia Gillard’s East Timor solution unravels, it’s instructive to reflect on how the new Prime Minister sought to portray herself as she sought to flog her “Timor Solution”.
 
The day after her now highly controversial Lowy Institute speech, Ms Gillard took herself and her entourage (more of that in a moment) to Darwin, where she boarded patrol boat HMAS Broome (incidentally commanded by a very telegenic Lisa McCune-lookalike young female officer) to highlight the other side of the boat people equation – naval border patrol.  It was a beautiful day, cloudless sky, deep blue sea and the PM on the bridge, apparently in charge of the operation with the young lieutenant by her side.