Correlation, Causation or a Carbon Tax Con-Job?

If two things vary in parallel, that is a positive correlation. But it does not prove that one causes the other.

For example, wet roads always occur when it rains. But wet roads do not cause rain.

Three things are required to prove that rain always causes wet roads.

Firstly, no exceptions – roads must get wet every time it rains. They do.

Secondly, the cause must always come before the effect. Rain always comes before wet roads (apart from snow, floods, burst water-mains etc).

Thirdly, we need a credible explanation of the mechanism. We have it – rain is composed of falling drops of water, and the water wets the road.

The three conditions are satisfied - therefore rain does cause wet roads. The theory becomes a law.

Now, let’s look at the theory that carbon dioxide (CO₂) controls global temperature.

Firstly, there is no consistent correlation – CO₂ has risen consistently for the last century but global temperatures rise and fall, and the trend has been flat for over a decade. This absence of consistent correlation proves that CO₂ is not the prime controller of global temperature.

Secondly, ice core data show that temperature turning points occur long before reversals in atmospheric CO₂ content. This evidence suggests that global temperature may control the CO₂ carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere, rather than the reverse. And there is a proven mechanism to explain that - warming oceans expel CO₂ and cooling oceans absorb it.

Thirdly, although the mechanism of carbon dioxide warming exists, it is progressively less effective as CO₂ levels rise.

It is clear that CO₂ fails all tests as the controller of global temperatures. Other factors such as solar cycles, clouds and oceans have much bigger impact.

Thus the carbon dioxide theory of global warming is a carbon tax con-job.

Viv Forbes,

Rosewood    Qld   Australia
[email protected]

Comments

[Jim Witt]

1.

Read and comprehend this folks, CO2 follows temperature changes, it does not cause temperature changes. Besides the oceans warming expelling more CO2, on the northern land masses as the permafrost melts it allows the trapped dead vegetation to rot down and expel CO2 as well. It has been happening of millions of years and will continue to happen for millions of years to come whether man is here or not.

[Allan]

2.

This is fourth year primary school stuff and way over the heads of the average Labor/Green devotee.

[Anton]

3.

Thirdly, although the mechanism of carbon dioxide warming exists, it is progressively less effective as CO2 levels rise

It is also so insignificant in relation to water vapour that a rational commentator would ignnore it. The effect is practically unmeasurable in an environment of changing air humidity.

[kraka]

4.

I'm guessing Viv doesn't get much air time on the ABC