Menzies House U.S. Politics Editor Michi Iljazi discusses the state of the 2012 US Presidential Election now that the conventions have wrapped up.
The 2012 Election is less than 60 days away and both sides have now had their respective conventions and though the two sides have striking differences (as well as glaring similarities) the contours of this race have been somewhat stubborn ever since GOP Nominee Mitt Romney secured his party’s nomination in May of 2012. The respective candidates have not been able to have a defining moment yet in the campaign that has generated any kind of “breakaway” from the other, nor has either candidate done anything that would jeopardize the steady ground they are standing on to possibly separate themselves from the other and create the needed distance in order to close out the contest in what is now the final stretch of a now multi-year campaign for the White House.
Romney (left); Obama (right) make the final pitch to voters
Why It’s Close:
This is a Base Election, Think 2004
The two sides in this election are now firmly behind their respective nominee, and there can be no doubt that this election is strikingly similar to the contest that took place eight years ago between President Bush and Senator John Kerry. The most important similarity is that the incumbent knows that he cannot run as some sort of outsider looking to bring something “new” to the table so the strategy is two fold: fire up your base & go hard after your opponent early and often. In 2004, the Bush reelection team used the issue of gay marriage to turn out their base, while making sure to paint Senator Kerry as an unacceptable alternative in a “war on terror” environment. The strategy worked for President Bush and though the race was close, it was clear that Kerry’s image among the electorate when it came to National Security was a major factor in getting undecided voters to go against him; and the issue of gay marriage turned out the conservative base to vote for President Bush in several important swing states (including Ohio, which decided that election). In this election, the Obama reelection team is using issues such as abortion and taxes that appeal to their bases in order gin up the excitement that is needed from the base in order to have a chance to win. There is one glaring difference in 2012… the economy is in bad shape and President Obama will need to neutralize that in some way in order to follow through on a base-election strategy.
Undecided Voters Remain Undecided
The closeness of the 2012 race can also be attributed to the fact that those limited amount of voters that have yet to make up there mind have seemed to be unmoved going all the way back as far as May of 2012. The reason why this 6-8% remain at a standstill could be attributed to a number of factors, all of which make it nearly impossible to gauge when and how they will ultimately decided. The fate of the undecided voter could spell trouble for either side depending on the events that take place between now and the election (debates, jobs reports, overseas issues). The key for President Obama is to get the undecided percentage as low as possible seeing as historically in any election, undecided voters tend to break for the challenger (in this case, Governor Romney). The key for Governor Romney is to close the deal on the “acceptability” question with as many undecided voters as possible before the election, so he may have a better chance of them breaking his way come November.
An updated look at the electoral map shows how close the race really is
The Attention Span Gap
The last reason, in my opinion, to explain the closeness of this race is that in all honesty many voters are just not tuned into the election at this point. A number of potential voters don’t even know who Mr. Romney is, even after the conventions. People, for the most part, are concerned with their own lives right now and in these down economic times there is a potential to just brush politics aside for the most part going well into the summer without really even wondering about the larger questions that make up a campaign. This is not the fault of anyone, and when the media and campaigns are focused on miniscule issues, you can’t really blame your average American for putting it aside until well into the Fall. With the coming debates, this will change, it may not alter the closeness of the race, but more voters will be focused and opinions may start be to shaped or even solidify as the day to choose approaches.
Why It Will Stay Close
Economy vs. Personality
The most important asset President Obama has in his bid for reelection is himself. The inspiring story he brought with in the 2008 campaign and the personal likeability he enjoys with voters from all party affiliations has helped to keep him either tied or slightly ahead in an environment that nearly any other incumbent would be sinking in. The US economy just had another disastrous jobs report and though some media allies attempted to spin the numbers in the report to seem as if good news was abound, even the Obama White House knew how bad this most recent report was. There are two more jobs reports coming, including one the Friday before the election, and though President Obama will use the same charisma and charm in order to keep pace with Governor Romney’s clear advantage on many Economic issues… it may not be enough.
Risk Averse Candidates
The other reason why this race will likely remain close up until the final days is because neither President Obama nor Governor Romney are risky when it comes to political strategy. In 2008 you had the “No Drama Obama” team who did everything possible to campaign exactly the way any other candidate in the Democrats’ position in 2008 would have; while John McCain’s risky campaign could be summed up in one or two instances over a two-year period… most notably the selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running-mate less than 24 hours after President Obama’s acceptance speech at the DNC in Denver. This time around, both men are playing it safe, and though I wrote about the “boldness” of the Ryan pick for VP, the truth is the pick isn’t risky, there’s a clear difference and Ryan is exactly what Romney needed without taking a major gamble (i.e. Rubio). The last chance for risk will come in the debates, and I would guess that both candidates will be as “script-driven” as they were in their acceptance speeches these past two weeks.
The election will be here in just less than two months, and as both campaigns flood the airwaves, barnstorm the swing states, and send out the surrogates in order to deliver the message they feel will best give them a winning formula… the one thing they need to remember is that in a race this close, nobody knows for sure what will be the deciding factor so playing to your strengths and avoiding even the slightest mistake will be key to keeping it close enough to have a chance one November 6th arrives.
Michi Iljazi is the U.S. Politics Editor of Menzies House. He earned his Master's Degree in Political Science at American University and currently resides in Washington, D.C. He has specialized in longitudinal campaign tracking, voter trends for Federal Races nationwide while working for Washington DC based center-right political advocacy organizations and currently works in Communications for a Virginia-based Advocacy Group. You may follow him on Twitter at @Michi83
The left wing papers would have readers believe Obama will win in a landslide.
The only media we see in Aust is that Obama has convinced the electorate on the back of Bill Clinton and his convention speech.
Posted by: oldskool | September 16, 2012 at 11:06 PM