Super Tuesday: Which States to Watch, and Why?

Menzies House U.S. Politics Editor Amir Iljazi gives a pre-vote analysis of Super Tuesday in the GOP Primary

This Tuesday, there will be ten contests nationwide in the GOP Presidential Primary and more than 400 delegates will be at stake for the four remaining contenders. There is a conventional wisdom that has rang true for many election cycles about the influence of Super Tuesday and the momentum that it can create, and ultimately sustain. Here is a brief list of the states and delegates that will be on the table:

Georgia (76), Idaho (32), Massachusetts (41), North Dakota (28), Ohio (66), Oklahoma (43), Tennessee (58), Vermont (17), and Virginia (49), along with Alaska's two-week-long caucuses, Mar. 6-24.

Many of the states will have proportional allocation for their delegates due to the new rules for this primary season with only a limited amount of purely ‘winner take all’ contests ensuring that no one candidate receives all 400+ delegates. Here are the four key races to watch as the polls close Tuesday night:

GEORGIA-

This is where Newt Gingrich will make what will be the beginning of his “last stand” as this is his home state and he is sporting a double-digit lead over Romney days before the vote will take place. Georgia has the most delegates on the table at 76, most of which will be awarded to Gingrich. There is absolutely no chance that he loses Georgia and the person who will be helped the most by this is not Gingrich himself, but Mitt Romney. The fact that Gingrich will take Georgia and most of those 76 delegates that come with it really assists Romney in such a way that Gingrich absolutely realizes it, and so does everyone else including Rick Santorum.

Newt Gingrich (above) looks to stay relevant with a big win in Georgia Tuesday 

VIRGINIA-

Virginia is another major prize on Super Tuesday awarding 49 delegates and there is definitely the possibility that someone could win them all. Due to the rules, only Romney and Paul are on the ballot, and the rules for this Primary state that if a candidate can take more than 50%, they win all the delegates. Romney certainly has a chance in a one-on-one contest with Paul to take more than 50% of the vote. Virginia (like Arizona last week) is seen as Romney’s firewall because he will likely be able to stave off losing smaller contests (Oklahoma, North Dakota) and larger contests (Georgia, Ohio) by winning Virginia.

Ron Paul (above) marches onward regardless of Tuesday's results

TENNESSEE-  

Surprisingly enough, this state is in-play. Santorum is leading slightly, but Romney is within striking distance and even if Romney could win it by a percentage point that would be a major victory for the Romney campaign and a major loss for the Santorum campaign. The delegates will be awarded proportionally as there is little chance any candidate will garner a majority needed in order to take the entire slate of 58 delegates. I think this race could come down to the wire and the rationale for Santorum would be damaged immensely if he cannot defeat Romney in what is certainly one of the most “southern” of the Southern states.

Rick Santorum (above) needs a strong night Tuesday to retake the momentum 

OHIO-

The MUST-WIN for Romney and Santorum as the winner of this race will most likely have the key momentum coming out of Super Tuesday. The process for delegate allocation is going to be a major factor because the state is not a pure winner take all. If no candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, each candidate receiving 20% or more of the statewide vote are allocated delegates. These will be chosen based on their percentage of the vote total; delegate allocations are rounded to the nearest whole number. Santorum has a major problem in Ohio because he is not eligible for 18 of Ohio’s 66 delegates due to balloting issues. He is holding a slight lead in pre-Super Tuesday polling, but that lead is within the margin of error, so once again it seems the fate of a major contest is very much up in the air at this point.

MItt Romney (above) aims to cement his status as the presumptive nominee

Predictions:

Georgia- Gingrich (by double digits)

Massachusetts- Romney (by double digits)

Vermont- Romney (by single digits)

Oklahoma- Santorum (by double digits)

North Dakota- Santorum (by less than 10%)

Idaho- Romney (by double digits)

Alaska- eventually to Romney (by less than 10%)

Virginia- Romney (With more than 50%, and by double digits)

Tennessee- Romney (by less than 5%) 

Here is an excellent detailed analysis of the Super Tuesday delegate breakdown from Nate Silver of The New York Times.

Now, as everything else in the race before, during, and after voting has occurred… this night will be about Mitt Romney and more specifically the state of Ohio. Should Romney win Ohio, this race will, for all intensive purposes, be over. I say this because Romney will have then won Florida and Ohio, two of the most important and diverse states in the General Election. Should Romney lose Ohio, he will still come out of Super Tuesday with more delegates than any of the other candidates, but the optics will most likely lead to what may be a drawn out process. Wins in Ohio, Virginia plus a possible upset in Tennessee could be the knockout punches Romney needs in order to show the party he can win anywhere.

Final prediction: Romney wins Ohio by less than 3%

Amir Iljazi is the U.S. Politics Editor of Menzies House. He earned his Master's Degree in Political Science at American University in Washington, D.C. and currently resides in Tampa, Florida. Before relocating back to Florida, he specialized in longitudinal campaign tracking and voter trends for Federal Races nationwide while working for a Washington DC based center-right political advocacy organisation. You may follow him on Twitter@Michi83

Comments

[oldskool]

1.

Amir
As always tahnks for your analysis, history shows you have predicted very well in your prevous posts

I always look forward to your articles

[Brett]

2.

I hope the voters in Ohio take the opportunity to make up for their lapse of judgment in helping to elect Obama in 2008.

[budgie smuggler]

3.

Santorum-
"“Satan has his sights on the United States of America! … Satan is attacking the great institutions of America, using those great vices of pride, vanity, and sensuality as the root to attack all of the strong plants that has so deeply rooted in the American tradition …. This is a spiritual war. And the Father of Lies has his sights on what you would think the Father of Lies would have his sights on: a good, decent, powerful, influential country – the United States of America. If you were Satan, who would you attack in this day and age? He attacks all of us and he attacks all of our institutions.”
Romney-
Mitt Romney is Mormon. Mormons believe in a living prophet that talks to God. Mormons must obey the prophet. Conflict of interest?
My money's on Obama.

[bluebell]

4.

If you believe in good and evil, and given the current state America is in, I too would start believing that an evil malevolent force is at work. Santorum is preaching to his believers. He is not targeting left wing atheists, however, he probably hopes to reach those left wingers who are of deep faith. Honestly BS, the US is a very politically complex country. Barry can forget getting any votes from 'those who cling to their guns and bibles'. However, you are probably right, Obama will get his second term. The tragedy for America is that he will NOT address spiraling out of control debt levels - he his printing more money and keeps raising the ceiling. In less than 12 months America will be facing another money crisis. China has America by the nuts....and they know it.

[Mark]

5.

Great analysis Amir, couldn't agree more with oldskool above.

Cheers

[oldskool]

6.

good one budgie- heaven forbid anyone with any belief in God would ever do a good job running a country- what a stupid comment you make

Romney was a state governor as was his father a 3 term state governor- i think that if their religion were going to interfere with their ability to govern that it would have been noted by now- but ignorants like you choose to overlook the facts and take your cheap shots

[budgie smuggler]

7.

oldskool, I was just making the observation that one can believe in really kooky concepts, and it's accepted as long as it's called religion. Imagine if Romney believed that Elvis was still alive (I saw him in the drive thru at mcdonalds), or that he'd been abducted by aliens and probed. But no, he believes a conman found golden plates that had been buried in upstate new york and that he decoded them using a seer stone in a hat to create a sacred text. May I ask you, was Joseph Smith a prophet?

[oldskool]

8.

budgie - you prove my point- you are an ignorant bigot

[budgie smuggler]

9.

oldskool, can you please tell me where I misrepresented the Mormon religion? I'm betting you can't.
I've only touched on the ideology. I haven't even mentioned Kolob, the Mormon masterplanet.
"Kolob is a star or planet described in Mormon scripture. Reference to Kolob is found in the Book of Abraham, a work published by Joseph Smith, Jr., the founder of the Latter Day Saint movement. According to this work, Kolob is the heavenly body nearest to the throne of God. "
I also haven't mention "mormon underwear", which is sometimes worn under real underwear to supposedly protect the wearer from evil.
You obviously have NO idea about this religion's teachings olskool. And you're calling me ignorant.
postscript- I have a friend who has been badly burnt by this "church"

[oldskool]

10.

budgie-
every religion has its quirks but they are no less important to the believers who are trying to be good people-may not appeal to you or your burnt friend but if someone believes in something which makes them accountable to be a better person than what they otherwise would be, that is a good thing whether or not you approve of the doctrine.

I would also add that your negative and belittling rants are bigoted and show extreme ignorance and sensitivity to the beliefs of others

PS
why are you so interested in the underwear of a 64 yo man?