Tasmania's turning point?

Terry Barnes analyses the political climate in Tasmania prior to their crucial state election.

The opinion polls are saying it, the media is starting to say it, and even the Labor Premier, David Bartlett, has all but conceded it: the Liberal Party is likely to be the largest party in the Tasmanian Legislative Assembly after the Hare-Clark system grinds its way through Saturday’s election count.

This has been an interesting campaign to watch, with each of the three main parties led by 40-odd year old men: David Bartlett for Labor, Will Hodgman for the Liberals and Nick McKim for the Greens. 

If the polls are right, on Saturday the Liberals look set to become the largest party while falling tantalisingly short of an absolute majority in the 25-seat lower house.  Last Monday, though, struggling Labor incumbent Bartlett made a startling admission – that if Labor does not win the most seats that he will resign as Premier, leaving it to Hodgman to form a minority if not a majority government.

For a Labor leader to be prepared to scuttle away five days out from polling day has the deceptive appearance of graciousness in potential defeat but it really demonstrates a political reality – that minority administration with the Greens holding the balance of power is toxic for effective government.  Bartlett clearly doesn’t want it if he can’t win in his own right.

If he is Premier in a hung parliament, Will Hodgman will not only be working to deliver his own promises – which, according to the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s election “spendometer” are by far the least expensive of the three main parties – but he also will have to resist the policies that McKim and his Greens will push from the cross-benches, including:

• A Department of Climate Change that regulates the life out of the Tasmanian economy in the name of a 40 per cent drop of greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2020;
• An education system that is more about social inclusion than teaching and learning excellence;
• Further drastic limits the use of Tasmania’s forest resources; and
• Generally handing the Tasmanian public sector an even bigger share than it already has of the State’s economy and workforce.

Majority government by either the Liberals or Labor would be far preferable for Tasmania’s future than minority government, and both parties are going hard in the final week to persuade voters to give them enough seats to end the threat of a Green balance of power.   But Bartlett’s late decision to throw as much mud as possible at a media-friendly McKim, especially Labor’s accusations about the legalisation of heroin and giving hardened prisoners the vote, suggest hysterical desperation in a tired government that is all but begging for a spell in the paddock.

Bartlett’s antics could backfire badly on the Government.  While the intention clearly is to scare Green flirters back to Labor, more wavering voters could well be turned off by Labor’s weak and mud-flinging display and turn to the only other alternative for stable majority government – Will Hodgman’s Liberals.

Unlike Bartlett, Hodgman has been smart and disciplined.  He has kept his guns firmly trained on Labor and is going all out for majority government.  A strong closing campaign by a Liberal team ready to lead can ensure that enough seats fall Hodgman’s way on Saturday night to avoid the nightmare of cohabitation with the Greens.  Let’s all hope that he wins through because where Tasmania goes, a post double dissolution Senate could follow.Terry Barnes is an Editor of Menzies House.

Comments

[Ben]

1.

I know the Liberals and Nationals are going well in the polls, when the antique media doesn’t talk about them in relation to polls. But thanks for the updates. You raise some good points.

[Ben W]

2.

As a proud Tasmanian who dearly loves his home state (I presently reside in Canberra), a hung parliament is just another reason never to return 'home'. The Greens are toxic for the state in so many ways, but people are just so naive about the potential disasters they will dish up.
Tasmanians are generally conservative people, but so many look past the Greens radical social agenda, or don't understand the philosophical underpinnings of the party. You can add to your list above issues such as euthanasia, same sex marriage and gay adoption - McKim is explicit about all of these things.
Tasmania is mired in economic disadvantage enough as it is without the Greens getting their grubby socialist mitts on government coffers. They have no plan for dragging Tasmania away from the social and economic backwater that it presently is.
It is about time the media gave the Greens the serving they deserved for being sound-byte feel-good moral fluff-buckets, but the leftist 'Muckery' and their friends at the ABC just lap it all up without any hint of objective scrutiny. The public, ever more frustrated by the antics of the inept Bartlett Labor government, just lap it all up too. McKim is nice as pie, but more dangerous than any other Green before him.
Bartlett will go, but Hodgman is too weak, too mushy and too media-driven to govern in his own right. Hodgman's pedigree is good, but his philosophy and personal style are shallow and transparent. Pity McKim is never subjected to the same type of scrutiny.
Pity Tasmania people, because come Sunday, it will be a disaster not just in the making, but very much happening!

[Terry Barnes]

3.

Good point about the media and the polls Ben. Talking of antique media, though, I can't walk out why The Mercury seems so hell-bent on wanting a Green-dominated hung parliament. Perhaps it's because they can't bring themselves to endorse the Libs and are fed up with Bartlett and Labor. But they should endorse majority government.

[Terry Barnes]

4.

Ben W, many thanks. I know and like Will (although I don't necessarily agree with everything he advocates), and I think he'll surprise many as Premier because he's got a depth of character and has learned how to lead over the last term. Being in Opposition always has an element of being poll and media-driven: just getting political oxygen is a real battle. So I'm very optimistic that if he takes office he can show his true potential as a leader. He will need to, he's going to have a lot on his plate.

[Ben W]

5.

As an aside to my earlier comment about the quality of media comment on the Tassie election, the Mercury have today given (Sir!) Richard Flanagan a soapbox upon which to fawn over the Greens: http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2010/03/18/134651_opinion.html
It's enough to make one sick! Where is the objective analysis of these social and economic vandals?
Terry, I'm willing to give Will the benefit of the doubt - he's definitely better than the other choices - but I don't see him as a 'conviction' politician.